#!/usr/bin/env bash
# 期待値予想（ev_forecast）の ◎ 的中・オッズ帯
set -euo pipefail
mysql keiba_ai -e "
SELECT '=== ev_forecast overall ===' AS '';
SELECT COUNT(*) AS total,
  SUM(status='ok') AS ok_rows,
  SUM(winner_umaban IS NOT NULL) AS with_winner,
  SUM(match_honmei_winner=1) AS honmei_hit,
  ROUND(100.0*SUM(match_honmei_winner=1)/NULLIF(SUM(winner_umaban IS NOT NULL),0),2) AS honmei_pct
FROM all_race_ai_profile_compare
WHERE profile_key IN ('ev_forecast','p6_latest');

SELECT '=== by year ===' AS '';
SELECT YEAR(race_date) AS y, COUNT(*) AS n,
  SUM(match_honmei_winner=1) AS hits,
  ROUND(100.0*SUM(match_honmei_winner=1)/COUNT(*),2) AS hit_pct
FROM all_race_ai_profile_compare
WHERE profile_key IN ('ev_forecast','p6_latest') AND status='ok' AND winner_umaban IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY y ORDER BY y;
"